What’s Next for Chocolate Prices?

Cocoa beans, current news about chocolate pricing

What’s Next for Chocolate Prices?  

2024 has seen the largest-ever increase in the price of cocoa as a myriad of factors have pushed up the price and made headlines. As a leading chocolate manufacturer in the UK, this is such a hot topic for us and our customers and many people are starting to ask – what’s next for chocolate prices? 

We’ve put together our thoughts and insights into what we think is next for cocoa prices ….

The Surge in Cocoa Prices  

The year 2024 has seen a significant surge in cocoa prices, driven by a combination of poor harvests, diseases, and unfavourable weather conditions in West Africa, where most of the world’s cocoa is grown. These challenges have caused cocoa prices to remain high throughout 2024 and into early 2025.

Cautious Optimism for the 2025 Crop  

Despite the current high prices, there is a glimmer of hope on the horizon. The arrival of some seasonal rain in West Africa has brought cautious optimism for the 2025 crop. This much-needed rain has led to a slight dip in current high cocoa pricing. However, it’s important to note that even with a promising summer cocoa pod count, we don’t expect prices to drop back to early 2024 levels.

The Current State of Cocoa Supply  

Traders have faced significant challenges in delivering cocoa beans they’ve sold, simply because there aren’t enough cocoa beans available. The deficit stock levels of cocoa are a major concern, and other factors, such as the introduction of the European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), will likely keep cocoa prices elevated for the foreseeable future.

Supplier Insights: A Glimmer of Hope  

There is a cautiously optimistic outlook for the 24/25 crop. Pod counts are providing a more optimistic picture compared to the same time last year. However, ensuring the survival of these crops is crucial to realising this potential. Rebuilding stock levels to healthy levels will be a challenging task, especially after three consecutive deficit years.

Bridging the gap between the 23/24 and 24/25 crops will be difficult given the existing stock situation. By the end of July, we expect to have a clearer understanding of the situation as the flowers and pods continue to grow.

Looking Ahead  

While we remain hopeful for a better 2025 crop that will help to alleviate prices, we are also realistic about the challenges that lie ahead. The current market conditions and regulatory changes suggest that higher cocoa prices are here to stay, at least for a while.

The world of cocoa is complex and ever-changing. As a chocolate manufacturer, we are committed to navigating these challenges and ensuring that our products continue to bring joy to our customers everywhere. 

Stay tuned for more updates as we keep a close eye on the developments in the cocoa market.